Happy Holidays to You and Yours

I’d like to take a minute and wish all the readers of this blog, no matter where they are in the world, or what holidays they celebrate this time of year, a season of peace, happiness and joy.  Enjoy the time with your family and friends.

I hope everyone has a wonderful, prosperous and healthy New Year in 2010.

Google Go: Good For What?

My posts on Google’s Go (Part 1 and Part 2) definitely touched a nerve with a few folks.  And I appreciate good dialog on ideas like this…

One pervasive question that I keep hearing is “Who is Go good for?”  And I’m having a hard time finding a good answer.  Even Go’s own FAQ page is uncharacteristically vague about it.

I’d say there are plenty of non-starters to keep Go out of the application programming space.  After my arguments pointing out that it won’t replace Java anytime soon, folks are telling me that I wasn’t looking at the right demographic.  These people suggest that Go is really for systems programmers.  Systems programming has typically been the bastion of C and (more recently) C++ programmers for the past 2 decades.  If you’re doing serious systems programming, you’re in one of those two camps, generally speaking.  Maybe with a touch of assembly here and there.

OK, I’m game for looking at that.  First off, what makes a good systems programming language?  Here are few things we might want:

  1. can operate in resource-constrained environments
  2. is very efficient and has little runtime overhead
  3. has a small runtime library, or none at all
  4. allows for direct and “raw” control over memory access and control flow
  5. lets the programmer write parts of the program directly in assembly language

Does Go really fit into that box?

  1. Go’s performance numbers are rough 6x worse than C++, on average.  The best performing Go test was comparable to the worst C test.  While I gave Go some leniency with Java on performance in an application environment (there are plenty of other non-memory, non-CPU bottlenecks to worry about there), the systems world is far stricter about raw, unabashed execution time and resource consumption.  (+10/20 pts)
  2. Go’s memory and execution footprint are higher than C and C++, according to these stats.  Not exactly an ideal candidate for replacing either of these languages currently entrenched in this space.  An interesting experiment:  Compile Hello World in Go and C++.  Go’s compiled & linked output:  38K, C++ clocks in at 6K, about 84% smaller. (+10/20 pts)
  3. If you include the garbage collector, the Go runtime footprint is certainly larger than C/C++.  But it’s safer than either C/C++ for the same reason.  And to top it off:  Go’s garbage collector isn’t parallel safe right now.  (To be fair, that’s the #1 thing on the TODO list right now for the Go team)  (+15/20 pts)
  4. Raw and direct control is possible, so Go checks in fine here.  You can use this to investigate runtime structures if you like. (+20/20 pts)
  5. This is similar to Java’s native interface (JNI), but statically linked.  So yes, it’s possible. (+20/20 pts)

At 20 pts per question, let’s be kind and give Go a 75/100 possible score there (A solid “C” on the American grading scale, yuck yuck…).  If you’re a C/C++ programmer where you’re already at 100/100 on the above chart, where is your motive to switch here? Couple that with the fact that systems programmers are not exactly known for adopting bleeding edge technology at a rapid pace.  It was years before C++ ever made substantial inroads with the embedded C crowd.  Considering the degree of reliability required to do high quality, bare-metal systems programming, I’d be skeptical of anything new in this space too.

Finally, let’s hit up the syntax argument one more time, because I think this is the crux of the entire problem.  Before I do, let me just say I don’t personally have any problems with Go’s syntax one way or the other.  I’ve learned a plethora of languages in my tenure as a software nerd and adding one more would not be a big deal if I felt the payoff was big enough.  But I think syntax familiarity is a barrier for a lot of people, based on my experience as a language instructor and Parkinson’s Law of Triviality.

Briefly stated, Parkinson’s Law says we unfortunately spend disproportionate amounts of time and energy arguing about things that are more trivial (and we understand) than we do about those that are more substantial (and fail to grasp).  This is particularly true with programming languages and syntax.  I saw that resistance teaching Java to C++ folks back in the mid-90s.  And that wasn’t exactly a big leap.  Changing from C++ to Go is likely to be much worse than C++ to Java, and that resistance is critical to adoption rates.

So I’m not feeling the love for Go replacing C/C++ systems programming either.  If I was looking for a new tool in my toolbox, I don’t think I’d be buying this one from Google.

My new programming tool:  Go!
My new programming tool: Go!

All of this leaves me scratching my head and singing:

Go! Huh!  Yeah!

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing.

Say it again.”

 

This article is translated to Serbo-Croatian language as well.

Military Software Sucks

Apparently the US Military can’t write software worth a damn.  Here’s a textbook-classic case of what happens when you decide to ignore a problem that is clearly evident at requirements time until well after post-deployment.

The Wall Street Journal did an article about the unmanned drones zipping over Afghanistan and Pakistan.  Apparently, local insurgents found a $26 piece of off-the-shelf software that could tap into the drone’s unencrypted video feeds and give the insurgents a clear view into what the US Military was watching, thus ruining the element of surprise.

Can you say “Ouch”?

A quote from the article itself says it all about military incompetence arrogance:

The potential drone vulnerability lies in an unencrypted downlink between the unmanned craft and ground control. The U.S. government has known about the flaw since the U.S. campaign in Bosnia in the 1990s, current and former officials said. But the Pentagon assumed local adversaries wouldn’t know how to exploit it, the officials said.

Holy Ostrich-Heads-In-The-Sand, Batman!  Not only did the military put software out the door with an obvious security flaw in it, they’ve ignored this problem for over 10 years because they thought the enemy was too dumb to figure it out! And the justification?

Fixing the security gap would have caused delays, according to current and former military officials. It would have added to the Predator’s price.

Yes, that’s absolutely trueBut honestly, how much would it really add? The Predators already run in the millions per drone (10-12 per the article).  Let’s analyze that, based on current prices of software contracting, estimated efforts and the technology involved.  First, we need a list of assumptions:

  1. Encryption requires additional processing power to encrypt at the drone and decrypt at the receiver.  Let’s assume they add a special card to each drone to dedicate to this task so the video feed isn’t compromised on the sending end.  Cost:  $1,000 per drone because it’s a special piece of hardware capable of running at 2Gs.  (Off the shelf solution today:  probably about $250)
  2. Cost to install in each drone:  Let’s say that it takes a tech about 2 hours worth of time per drone.  And assume the tech is paid a modest $20/hour to do his work.  $40 per drone.
  3. The card requires additional software to link it into the current drone video processing loops.  Let’s assume the video processing is well-known, and the encryption addition takes roughly 2 engineers 1 month to complete.  (2 engineer months @ $150/hour government contracting rates = $24,000 for all drones).
  4. The receiver software requires a comparable upgrade to handle the decryption.  Assume another 2 engineers are dedicated to that task for a similar length of time.  Another $24,000 for all drones.
  5. Figure in some extensive testing:  Another 2 engineers for a month:  $24,000 for all drones.
  6. Assume that managers are involved and their costs are amortized into other projects, which is likely true.
  7. Finally, assume this is for an existing fleet of 1,000 drones.

Adding all that up, I get the following:

  • 1,000 drones * $1,040 = $1.04 million for all drones.
  • Fixed costs = $72,000
  • Total costs = $1,112,000 dollars for 1,000 drones OR
  • $1,112/drone

At $10 million dollars (the low end) per drone, that’s a 0.0112% increase in price per drone.  Hardly a massive cost overrun by military standards.  And let’s assume I’m off by a factor of 10 on all my calculations…still, that’s still about 0.11%.  Again, not a massive overrun for something that mission critical.  Compared to most software projects with mid-double digit overruns on developer time, this is positively amazing.

And the delay argument?  Maybe 6 months to retrofit the fleet.  At best.  You’d think that in 10 years time, the military could find 6 lousy months to upgrade its most important asset in the 21st century.  Even a phased upgrade would have worked here over that time frame.

This is all taking into account that the military is fixing this problem well after the design and implementation phases (our old friend Habit 5:  Fix it Later) instead of identifying and fixing this problem up front.  That would reduce the costs even further.  I find it completely incredulous that not a single person during the design or requirements gathering phases said, “Hey, maybe we ought to encrypt the video feed…”  Aren’t they supposed to gather information, uh, secretly?

If you think the software we write is bad, wait until you see our solutions!
If you think the software we write is bad, wait until you see our solutions!

Clearly one of two things is going on here:

  • The military is too lazy or stupid to realize that the enemy will find and crack that exploit given enough time and resources (let’s just throw out the number 10 years…)
  • The military price to fix this flaw is much higher, meaning that the cost overruns are due to corruption, incompetence, or outright greed in government contracting.

Shame on everyone involved.  This sort of breech wouldn’t happen at Amazon.com’s ecommerce site.  It shouldn’t happen with some of our most important software technology given that this is a solvable problem with known constraints.

* UPDATE @ 12:48p, 12-17-2009:  My math was off by a factor of 1,000 on the calculations and my addition sucked.  I’ve just embarrassed every math teacher I’ve ever had.  Now it’s even cheaper and more horrific!

Data In The Cloud: Cloud 9 or Plan 9?

Cloud computing is clearly not where we want it to be.

On the one hand, we have folks actively trumpeting the benefits and utilitarian nature of cloud computing and data storage.  It’s attractive for sure.  Access data anywhere.  Avoid the hassles of local backups.  Prevent data recovery disasters.  Pay-for-what-you-eat models.  Unlimited computing potential.  It’s all sounds great on a blog.  Clearly the proponents want us to think Cloud computing is exactly like living on “Cloud Nine“.

The reality is still more hype than help to most of us.  Mostly early adopters are using it today.  There are steep learning curves to use the APIs.  Costs of usage and storage are decreasing, but are far from the “zero cost” models touted.  Nightmarish security issues arise when you don’t know where your data lives.  And people are losing control of their data.  That brings me to today’s Google infraction.

Google Docs is the classic example of storing data in the cloud and it’s proving to be somewhat unreliable and unpredictable.  Not exactly what you’d want to hear when you are storing away personal and important information.  Here’s a small list of documents that have been recently rejected with “inappropriate content” messages from Google:

Some of these issues have lingered for over a month, and still have no resolution or response from Google.  Some are brand new.  Either way, how can you feel good about your data in Google Docs?  And if the one of the largest cloud computing advocate-providers can’t get it right, who can? Do you really want to play guesswork with important information like that?  That’s just insane.

From Google’s own Terms of Service:

– 8.3 Google reserves the right (but shall have no obligation) to pre-screen, review, flag, filter, modify, refuse or remove any or all Content from any Service.

I understand the intent of this statement.  Google probably doesn’t want the liability of Al Qaeda using the Cloud to do predictive modeling for their next attack.  Or to storing documents spewing anti-Semitic hate speech.   But the reality of what they’re protecting is a bit more utilitarian and ugly:  copyrights.  There’s nothing worse than the MPAA or RIAA coming after you because you posted some content they own the copyrights to and you’re using without their permission.  This is a CYA move by Google for sure.

But what about my daughter’s homework?  If her upload somehow violates a magic filter, completely obscured from public scrutiny during upload and Google prevents her from accessing it, does she get to claim that the Cloud Ate Her Homework?  Never have Microsoft Word, a local hard drive and laptop in her room looked so attractive for safety and security.  Precisely the opposite of what the cloud says.

Are we getting this level of (dis)service because Google is tired of providing things for free now?  Are they going to force us to pay for the data we already put into the cloud?

Google’s entire history is about creating useful applications (GMail, GTalk, Wave, Google Docs) that are free to use, and allowing those that wish, premium features for a modest upgrade.  I don’t think it’s too much to ask that basic reliability (Google saves my documents and keeps them safe) and predictability (Google gives me access to them next time, or at least tells me why I can’t see them) are part of the “free service”, within some reasonable limits of storage.  If I have to pay just to ensure that Google will store a simple document in the first place, and not lose, modify or reject the content, that model really fails the general public and breaks with Google history to date.

Bela Lugosi as DataCenter Manager...Scary!
Ed Wood as DataCenter Manager...Scary!

As long as the cloud can freely mess with my information without my consent, “Cloud 9” computing sounds more like “Plan 9 from Outer Space” and I doubt I’d want Ed Wood in charge of my family spreadsheets.

Google’s Go Isn’t Getting Us Anywhere, Part 2

In Part One of this post, we discussed the Great Concurrency Problem and the promise of Go in taking the throne from Java.  Today, I show why Go isn’t going to get us there.

Back in the heady days of C++, if you wanted to add concurrency support to your application, you had to work for it.  And I don’t mean just find a few calls and shove them into your application.  I mean:

  • Find a threading library available on your platform (maybe POSIX, maybe something more nightmarish, maybe even a custom thread library that would run you a few hundred bucks per license)
  • Locate the obscure documentation on threading APIs
  • Figure out how to create a basic thread
  • In the process, read the encyclopedia-sized docs about all the real issues you’ll hit when building threads
  • Decode the myriad of options available to you to synchronize your threaded application via header files
  • Add the library to your makefile
  • Code the example and
  • Make it all work

Contrast that with Java:

  • Create a Runnable interface
  • Implement the run() method
  • Call new Thread(myRunnable).start();
  • Debug the obscure errors you get after about 6 months of production

Whoa.  At least with C++, the Threading Shotgun wasn’t loaded, the safety was on and it was hanging on the wall.  You had to do the hard work of loading the gun, removing the safety and pulling the trigger.  Java took all that away by handing you the loaded shotgun, safety off.  That shotgun is the Great Concurrency Problem.

Java’s great contribution and Achilles Heel, in my opinion, was the choice to make threading so darned easy to do, without making developers innately aware of the implications or difficulties of concurrent programming with the shared memory model.  C++ made you wade through all the hard shared-memory stuff just to get to threads, so by the time you wrote one, you at least felt smart enough to give it a go.  The concurrency models in Java and C# hide all sorts of ugliness under the covers like shared memory models, caching of values, timing issues, and all the other stuff that the hardware must implement to make these concurrent threads do their jobs.  But because we don’t understand those potential pitfalls before we write the software, we blithely assume that the language semantics will keep us safe.  And that’s where we fall down.

Write a multi-threaded program in any shared-memory concurrent language and you’ll struggle with subtle synchronization issues and non-deterministic behavior.  The timing bugs arising from even moderately concurrent applications will frustrate and annoy the most seasoned of developers.  I don’t care if it’s in Java or not–the issues are similar.

My specific beef with Java is the ease with which we can create these constructs without understanding the real problems that plague us down the road.  Until we have the right tools to produce concurrent applications in which we can reliably debug and understand their behavior, we can’t possibly benefit from the addition of a new language.  In other words, if you want to create a Java killer, you’re going to need to make concurrent programming safer and easier to do.  A tall order to say the least.

Enter Google’s Go in November, 2009.  The number one feature trumpeted by reviewers is the use of goroutines (the message-based concurrency mechanism for Go) and channels to improve concurrent programming.  Initial reviews are mixed at best.  But I don’t think we’re anywhere close to killing Java off with this new arrival on the scene for a variety of reasons:

Going nowhere?
Going nowhere?
  • Go decided to use a foreign syntax to C++, C and Java programmers.  They borrows forward declarations from BASIC (yep, you heard me right…BASIC), creating declarations that are backwards from what we’ve been using for close to 20 years.  Incidentally, syntax similarity was one of the main reasons C++ programmers easily migrated to Java during the Language Rush of 1995, so this is disappointing.
  • Performance benchmarks that put it slower than C++ (and therefore, slower than Java today since Java finally caught up to C++ years ago).  OK, I’ll grant you that Java wasn’t fast out of the gate, but Java was also interpreted.  Go is statically linked, and not dynamically analyzed at runtime, so it’s not likely to get better immediately.
  • A partial implementation of Hoare’s CSP model using message-based concurrency.  I almost got excited about this once I finally understood that message passing really makes for safer concurrency.  But they didn’t get the model quite right.  For example, did you know you can take the address of a local variable and pass that via a channel to another goroutine to be modified? Bringing us right back to the same crappy problems we have in Java and C#.  Oh yes.  Not that you should do that, but even Java was smart enough to drop the address of operator for precisely that reason.
  • A few low-level libraries bundled with language, but just barely enough to be functional for real world applications.  Completely AWOL:  Database and GUI.  (translation:  “I get to rewrite database access.  One. More Time.”  Neat.)  Did I mention Java had those during it’s 1.0 release?
  • Static linking.  OK, I admit I’m an object snob and I like a strongly-typed, dynamically-bound language like Java.  I like reflection and dynamic class loading and the fact I can pass strings in at runtime, instantiate objects and execute functions in ways the original code didn’t explicitly define (and yes, I’ve done this in enterprise production systems!).  Not with Go, instead we’re back to C++ static linking.  What you build is what you get.  Dynamic class loading was probably one of the most useful aspects of Java that allowed for novel ways of writing applications previously unseen.  Thanks for leaving that one out.
  • Excepting Exceptions.  Go decided to omit exceptions as the error handling mechanism for execution.  Instead, you can now use multiple return values from a call.  While it’s novel and perhaps useful, it’s probably a non-starter for the Java crowd used to error handling using exceptions.

This feels like some academic research project that will be infinitely pontificated about for years to come, but not a serious language for enterprise development (obligatory XKCD joke).  In short, I’m not impressed.  And I kind of wanted to be.  I mean this is freakin’ Google here.  With the horsepower of Robert Griesemer, Rob Pike, Ken Thompson in one building.  The #1 search engine in the world.  The inventor of Google Wave that created so much buzz, people still don’t have their Wave Invites yet.

Enterprise Languages should be evolutionary steps in a forward direction.  But Go doesn’t really get us anywhere new.  And it certain isn’t much of a threat to Java. Sorry Google, maybe you need to give it another go?

* Many thanks to my friend Tom Cargill (who you may know from the “Ninety-Nine Rule“) who reviewed early drafts of these 2 posts and corrected my mistaken notions of concurrency, parallelism, Goroutines and Go syntax.  He didn’t stop the bad jokes, though.  Sorry about that.

Google’s Go Isn’t Getting Us Anywhere, Part 1

There’s buzz in the air about Google’s new language Go.  Naturally, I was excited hearing about it.  After all, Google has produced so many interesting tools and frameworks to date there’s almost automatic interest in any new Google software release.  But this wasn’t just a product, this was a Google language release.  My programmer brain pricked up immediately.

Language releases always catch my attention.  Since 1995, I’ve constantly wondered what is going to be the Great Java Killing Language.  Java’s release was the Perfect Storm of Language Timing–the rise of the internet, the frustration with C++, the desire for dynamic web content, a language bundled with a large series of useful libraries (UI, database, remoting, security, threading)  previously never seen.  Lots of languages have been released since, but none with quite the reception of Java.  But with that perfect storm came some serious fallout.

Java vs. C++
Java vs. C++

At the same time Java rose to prominence as the defacto web and enterprise language of choice, Moore’s Law was hard at work and hardware companies were creating new kinds of processors–not just faster ones, but also motherboards that supported multiple processors.  And then multiple cores on those processors.  Concurrency became the new belle of the ball, with every language making sure they added support for it.  Which gave rise to the widespread use of concurrency features in languages.  In essence, Java brought attention to the Great Concurrency Problem that has haunted us almost two decades now.

Before I address the Great Concurrency Problem, we have to agree that most people confuse Concurrency with Parallelism.  Let’s start with the definitions from Sun’s Multithreaded Programming Guide:

  • Parallelism: A condition that arises when at least two threads are executing simultaneously.
  • Concurrency: A condition that exists when at least two threads are making progress. A more generalized form of parallelism that can include time-slicing as a form of virtual parallelism.

Parallelism has only come about with multi-processor/multi-core machines in the last decade or so.  Previously, we used Concurrency to simulate Parallelism.  We program our applications to run as concurrent threads.  And we’ve been doing that for years now on multithreaded processors.  But the Great Concurrency Problem is really a problem about the differences between Human Thinking and actual Machine Processing.  We tend to think about things linearly, going from Breakfast to Lunch to Dinner in a logical fashion.  In the background of our mind, we know things are going on.  You might even be semi-aware of those yourself.  And occasionally, we get those “Aha!” moments from that background processing of previous subjects.  We use this mental model and attempt create a similar configuration in our software.  But the shared-memory concurrency model used by Java and other languages creates implicit problems that our brains don’t really have.  Shared memory is a tricky beast.  You have objects and data inside Java that multiple threads can access in ways that aren’t intuitive or easily understood, especially when the objects you share get more and more complex.

There are really two main models for concurrent programmingshared memory and message-passing communication.  Both have their ups and downs.

Shared memory communication is the most common of the two and is present in most mainstream languages we use today.  Java, C#, C++ and C all used shared memory communication in their thread programming models.  Shared memory communication depends on the use of memory locations that two or more threads can access simultaneously.  The main danger of shared memory is that we share complex data–whole objects on the heap for example.  Each thread can operate on that data independently, and without regard to how other threads need to access it.  Access control is granted through monitors, mutexes and semaphores.  Making sure you have the right control is the tough part.  Too little and you corrupt your data.  Too much and you create deadlocks.

Let me give a concrete example to show just how nasty this can get for shared memory communication:  Let’s say you’re handling image processing via threads in a shared-memory model–like Photoshop does for image resizing.  And let’s say you’re trying to parallelize this processing such that more than one thread handles a given image.  (Yes, I understand we don’t do that today and there’s a good reason for that.  This is an analogy, just keep your shirt on a sec.)  An image is an incredibly complex object:  RGB values, size, scale, alpha, layers if you’re in Photoshop, color tables and/or color spaces depending on the format, compressed data, etc.  So what happens when Thread A is analyzing the pixel data for transformation and Thread B is trying to display that information on the screen?  If Thread A modifies something that Thread B was expecting to be invariant, interesting things happen*.  Thread A may accidentally corrupt the state of the image if Thread B doesn’t lock the entire object during read operations.  That’s because Threads A and B are sharing the entire object.  Oh sure, we can break the image down into smaller, simpler data abstractions but you’re doing that because of the shared memory problem.  Fundamentally, Java objects can be shared between threads.  That’s just a fact.

Keep in mind this is just a TWO thread example.  When you write concurrent systems, two threads is like a warm up before the Big Game–we’re barely getting started.  Real systems use dozens, if not hundreds of threads.  So if we’re already having trouble keeping things straight with two threads, what happens when we get to 20?  200?  The problem is that modeling any system using concurrent programming tools yields a subtle mess of timing bugs and problems that rarely appear until you have mountains of production data or traffic hammering your system.  Precisely when it’s too late to do anything about it.

Even Java’s own documentation from ages ago cautions just how hard this problem really is:

‘‘It is our basic belief that extreme caution is warranted when designing and building multi-threaded applications … use of threads can be very deceptivein almost all cases they make debugging, testing, and maintenance vastly more difficult and sometimes impossible. Neither the training, experience, or actual practices of most programmers, nor the tools we have to help us, are designed to cope with the non-determinism … this is particularly true in Java … we urge you to think twice about using threads in cases where they are not absolutely necessary …’

Hey, what's behind that Runnable there?  Uh oh...
Hey, what's behind that Runnable there? Uh oh...

Harsh words (at the bottom) from a language that really opened Pandora’s Box in terms of giving us the tools to make concurrency an everyday part of our applications.

Message-passing communication is perhaps the safer of the two models.  Originally derived from Hoare’s Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP), message-passing communication is used in languages like Erlang, Limbo and now, Go.  In message-passing communication, threads exchange messages with discreet amounts of local data via channels.  I like to think of message-passing communication to be kind of algorithmic atomicity–you are performing some action, say transforming an image and at a certain step, you need the data from the image’s color table.  So you wait to get a message from another thread when that data is available.  And then continue processing locally in your own algorithm.

Because threads are restricted in what they can share, the risk of corrupt data and deadlocks drops considerably.  But this comes with a higher processing cost than shared memory communication.  With shared memory, there was no re-writing of the data before thread access.  Just the opposite is true for message-passing.  Until recently, message-passing communication was considered far to expensive to use for real-time systems.  But our multi-core, multi-processor world of the 21st century has finally broken down that barrier.

The question is, does Go really solve that problem in a way that overthrows Java as King of the Enterprise?  Tune in tomorrow for Part Two, where we look at Go’s features, whether Go really addresses any of these problems, and if Java is doomed.

* “Interesting” is the default programmer adjective we tend to apply when what we really mean is “incredibly BAD”.

It’s Official: Java Has Jumped The Shark

My favorite enterprise language seems to be running out of good ideas to implement.

From this post detailing the upcoming language features of Java 7, here is the list of completed features to date:

  1. Language support for collections
  2. Automatic Resource Management
  3. Improved Type Inference for Generic Instance Creation (the “diamond” operator)
  4. Underscores in numeric literals
  5. Strings in switch
  6. Binary literals
  7. Simplified Varargs Method Invocation

Now, keep in mind, usually the most critical, important, or difficult features are implemented first. At least if you’re trying to get something out that is meaningful.  But seriously, this is what Sun thought was the most important? Continue reading “It’s Official: Java Has Jumped The Shark”